Selection on Expected Maximum Haploid Breeding Values Can Increase Genetic Gain in Recurrent Genomic Selection

Genomic selection (GS) offers the possibility to estimate the effects of genome-wide molecular markers, which can be used to calculate genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for individuals without phenotypes. GEBVs can serve as a selection criterion in recurrent GS, maximizing single-cycle but not necessarily long-term genetic gain. As simple genome-wide sums, GEBVs do not take into account other genomic information, such as the map positions of loci and linkage phases of alleles. Therefore, we herein propose a novel selection criterion called expected maximum haploid breeding value (EMBV). EMBV predicts the expected performance of the best among a limited number of gametes that a candidate contributes to the next generation, if selected. We used simulations to examine the performance of EMBV in comparison with GEBV as well as the recently proposed criterion optimal haploid value (OHV) and weighted GS. We considered different population sizes, numbers of selected candidates, chromosome numbers and levels of dominant gene action. Criterion EMBV outperformed GEBV after about 5 selection cycles, achieved higher long-term genetic gain and maintained higher diversity in the population. The other selection criteria showed the potential to surpass both GEBV and EMBV in advanced cycles of the breeding program, but yielded substantially lower genetic gain in early to intermediate cycles, which makes them unattractive for practical breeding. Moreover, they were largely inferior in scenarios with dominant gene action. Overall, EMBV shows high potential to be a promising alternative selection criterion to GEBV for recurrent genomic selection.